Digression on the Tea Party: anything stable about their preferences or more fluid? Think of the American electorate as divided along an x-axis that is traditional liberal conservative on the economy, and then another axis that's vertical, social conservative. When you talk about their mood, basing these observations on survey data? Correct, average across 15-20 polls that are good and surveys here at the Hoover Institution, commissioned, YouGov Polimetrix. Very unhappy with what's been going on in the country unhappy with health care, with taxes, with spending their mood more closely approximates the Republican mood than the Democratic mood. Independents are growing in number, past year and a half, about 40% or so. All-important Independents are where the mood has changed. Democrats, still pretty happy with the President 80% approval rating among Democrats. Republicans are not happy most of the Tea Party members, who are Republican, are upset about government spending. What is the mood of the electorate? One way to answer that question is to do an average, but think the mood varies by political party. Dole was a man who played well in Kansas, but not where it mattered. The Republicans failed to nominate a candidate who could match Clinton’s campaign, and win the independents and anti-establishment vote. The outcome of that election was sealed as soon as Dole got the nomination. So there were several million 1992 voters who preferred stay at home rather than vote for Dole, and another 8 million who preferred Perot to Dole.
There were almost 10 million fewer votes cast in 96 than in 92, yet Dole’s total was the same as Bush’s in 92, and Clinton’s increased by only 2.5 million. There was a palpable mood among many independents and Republicans of discontent with the status quo, thus the presence of Ross Perot on the ballot. Instead, it was a result of the GOP nominating an uninspiring, dull, old, white, male, establishment candidate to run against a young, dynamic, incumbent who was a master salesman and campaigner. I disagree, I think this had very little to do with the outcome. The guest attributes Clinton’s victory to the Republicans “over-playing” their hand after their mid-term rout of the Democrats.
But I have to disagree with the guest on one small point regarding the 1996 Presidential election.
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